Eco-Trust Specification — calculation logic
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Specification — calculation logic Controlled copy

The logic the score is built on

This page explains what the model measures, how each pillar becomes a score, why the weights are divided as they are and which conditions operate outside the equation — together with two sample cases showing where that logic lands in practice. The numerical calibration values do not appear on this page and are held in the controlled version of the document.

STRUCTURE

Five scores, five weights, one number

The structure of the calculation is deliberately simple. Each of the five pillars is converted to a sub-score on a shared scale, multiplied by its own weight and summed, and the result lands on the 0 to 1000 scale. All the difficulty lies in that first conversion: how the raw data of each pillar becomes a number comparable with the other four.

Score=0.40·E1 + 0.20·E2 + 0.15·E3 + 0.15·E4 + 0.10·E5scaled onto the 0 to 1000 range
SymbolPillarHow it scores
E1Repayment behaviour on the platformDeductive — starts at full marks and falls with each negative event
E2Iranian Credit Scoring ratingDirect mapping from the official scale onto the model scale
E3Facilities and commitments at other banksStepped, on the ratio of debt burden to turnover
E4Account balance and turnoverTwo sub-indicators combined at equal weight
E5Blocks and returned chequesDeductive — it only subtracts, never adds

Why we keep the equation simple

The standing temptation in scorecard design is to add interaction terms and non-linear functions for a few percentage points of statistical accuracy. We did not take that route, and the reason is operational rather than technical. A score a credit officer cannot explain to a customer in one meeting gets worked around in practice; and a score an auditor cannot trace gets challenged at the first inspection. The simplicity of the equation is the price we pay for defensibility, and we pay it knowingly. The complexity sits where it can be tested and reviewed: in the rules that convert raw data, each of which is calibrated and monitored independently.

PILLAR ONE · WEIGHT 40%

Repayment behaviour: three things measured at once

This is the heaviest part of the model, because it is the only input that measures a company's actual conduct rather than its own assertions or someone else's assessment. Every company enters the observation window on full marks, and each negative event subtracts from that. But "how much it subtracts" has no fixed answer; it depends on three things.

One — severity of the event

Negative events fall into five classes, and the penalty for each class is meaningfully larger than the one before it. In order, from lightest to heaviest:

Event classDefinitionPosition on the severity scale
Short delayEntry into arrears and return within a few daysThe lightest recordable event
Moderate delayRemaining in arrears for up to about a monthSeveral times a short delay
Long delayRemaining in arrears up to the sixty-day boundaryNear the ceiling of the delay class
Entry into doubtfulCrossing sixty days and changing accounting treatmentA sharp jump — not a continuation of the class before
Partial settlementSettling for less than the instrument amount, regardless of delayAn independent event, cumulative with any delay penalty
The sixty-day boundary is a step, not a slope. Between a long delay and entry into doubtful, the penalty jumps discontinuously. That decision comes from the reality of the instrument system — electronic drafts, guarantee instruments, GAM notes and online documentary credit: on day sixty-one nothing has merely been added — the accounting class of the receivable has changed and the file has entered a different process. A model that crosses this boundary on a gentle slope is measuring something that does not happen in the bank's ledgers.

Two — age of the event

A three-month-old delay and a twenty-month-old delay mean two different things. The first says the company is under liquidity pressure right now; the second only says it once was. The model holds events in a multi-year window and reduces their effect in steps: a current event carries full force, a mid-period event loses part of it, and an old event leaves only a shadow. Outside the observation window an event drops out of the calculation but is not deleted from the history — and the difference between those two matters in an audit.

The practical consequence for a customer is clear: a poor record can be repaired. A company that corrects its behavioural pattern recovers its score within a few quarters without anything being erased from its file. This is deliberate; a model with no route back removes the incentive to improve and, in practice, sends the customer to another platform.

Three — recurrence of the pattern

If several events of the same kind recur within a close window, the total penalty for that class is multiplied by a factor greater than one. The factor grows with each repetition and is capped, so that one short crisis does not disable a company's file permanently.

Why the pattern matters more than the severity. A single long delay is usually an incident: a large customer paying late, a shipment stuck, a banking outage. But three short delays in one year is not an incident; it is a sign that the company's liquidity management is structurally running on the edge. Both the credit risk literature and the platform's own experience point the same way: frequency predicts future default better than the severity of any single event. The recurrence factor brings that finding into the number.

Further down this page you will find two sample cases in which this rule is decisive — and the difference it makes is larger than the difference between the two companies' official ratings.

PILLARS TWO TO FIVE

Three external windows and one restraining filter

The first pillar says how a company has behaved with us. The next three say what is happening outside the platform, and the fifth looks only for restraining signals. All four use conversion rules that are declared in advance and identical for every company.

Pillar two — the Iranian Credit Scoring rating

A direct, unmodified mapping from the official scale onto the model scale. No judgement is added here; all the model does is put the rating on a comparable footing so it can sit beside the other four pillars. If the rating is unavailable — common for newly incorporated companies — a neutral value is substituted and the score is issued flagged as "incomplete data". We assume neither the best case nor the worst; we report an absence of data as an absence of data.

Pillar three — facilities and commitments at other banks

The question here is simple: how much of this company's repayment capacity is already promised to someone else? The basis is the ratio of total outstanding facilities and commitments to verified annual turnover, and the scoring is stepped rather than continuous. The reason is that in practice the difference between two companies in different steps is meaningful, while their difference within one step is measurement noise. An active overdue facility reduces this pillar independently of the debt burden ratio.

Pillar four — account balance and turnover

This is the only pillar that measures capacity rather than track record, and it is built from two sub-indicators at equal weight. The first is cash coverage: average balance against upcoming monthly obligations. The second is turnover stability: whether monthly turnover moves around a steady trend or is erratic and patternless. The second is often overlooked, yet two companies with equal annual turnover and different patterns represent two entirely different risks.

Pillar five — blocks and returned cheques

This pillar starts at full marks and only falls; no company earns extra points for "having no returned cheques", because that is the normal state rather than an achievement. Four signals are read: a remedied returned cheque, an unresolved returned cheque, an active judicial block, and non-performing debt in the banking network. The same ageing factor as pillar one applies here too, and two of these four signals also trigger a knock-out rule in addition to deducting points.

KNOCK-OUT RULES

Four conditions the overall score does not get to overrule

In some situations a high overall score should not authorise credit. These rules run outside the equation and cap the grade, even when the number points to a higher one.

ConditionEffectWhy it sits outside the equation
Unresolved returned chequeGrade capped at C — issuance only with committee approvalA payment obligation has been dishonoured and not yet remedied. It should not be possible to mask that with good turnover or a high official rating; if it enters the equation, that is exactly what happens.
Active judicial blockNew credit issuance haltedWhen a company's assets are not at its own disposal, measuring repayment capacity is meaningless. The question here is not the size of the risk but its feasibility.
Entry into doubtful in recent monthsGrade capped at B2This is current conduct, not history. The ageing factor has not yet discounted it and it should not be neutralised by good marks on the external pillars.
Written-off receivable within the control windowGrade DThe most severe event possible in an instrument life cycle. The logic of gradual point deduction was not designed for this condition and applying it gives a misleading result.
A knock-out rule only sets a ceiling. If the calculated score is below the rule's cap, the lower score governs. No rule ever raises a company's grade; the effect is always one-directional.
SAMPLE CASE ONE

Company A — a good payer with two small slips

A company with two years of history and moderate activity on the platform. Its file is clean but not flawless — which is what makes it a good example, since most healthy companies look exactly like this.

Case profile

DimensionStatus
Behaviour on the platform
Activity volumeSeveral dozen instruments in the observation window — enough history for the full weight of pillar one
On-time settlementThe large majority of instruments settled with no event at all
Negative eventsTwo short delays and one partial settlement, since remedied
Distribution in timeEvents spread across two years rather than clustered in one window
Entry into doubtfulNone on record
External data
Iranian Credit Scoring ratingIn the upper half of the official scale
Debt burdenLight — a small share of annual turnover committed elsewhere
Cash coverageBalance slightly above upcoming monthly obligations
Turnover stabilityVery steady
Returned cheques and blocksNone

What happens in the calculation

The repayment pillar closes with a small deduction from full marks, and three factors hold that deduction down. First, all three events fall into the light classes. Second, two of them are old enough that the ageing factor has reduced their effect to a fraction of the original. And third — the most important — the recurrence factor does not activate, because only one of the two same-class delays falls inside the close window. On the external side, all three pillars land in the upper steps and the fifth pillar is untouched.

Company A result
Credit ceiling multiple4× base
Collateral coverage0 to 10 percent
Approval pathAutomatic approval
Score872of 1000
A1

The basis for the ceiling is the company's average verified monthly turnover on the chain, and the grade multiple is applied to that — not to a figure the company has declared. Grade A1 means approval without officer involvement and a semi-annual review.

The instructive point in this file. Had those same two small delays occurred in recent months instead of being spread over two years, two effects would have fired at once: the ageing factor would no longer discount them, and the recurrence factor would apply to their total. With the same number of events and the same severity, the file would sit at the edge of the grade below. The timing of events matters as much as the events themselves.
SAMPLE CASE TWO

Company B — same rules, an entirely different outcome

A company with lower activity and a recurring delay pattern. This case shows what actually drives a score down — and it is usually not what people guess.

Case profile

DimensionStatus
Behaviour on the platform
Activity volumeAbout half that of Company A
Negative eventsThree delays of differing severity, all three within the close window
Distribution in timeClustered — all in one compressed period
Entry into doubtfulOne event, in the second half of the observation window, since settled
External data
Iranian Credit Scoring ratingAround the middle of the official scale
Debt burdenHeavy — close to the whole of annual turnover committed
Cash coverageBelow upcoming monthly obligations
Turnover stabilityConsiderable volatility
Returned chequesOne event, remedied and old
BlocksNone

What happens in the calculation

The repayment pillar loses close to half its marks and that, at a forty percent weight, decides the outcome of the file. But the bulk of that deduction does not come from the delays themselves; it comes from the recurrence factor, which fires because all three same-class events fall within the close window and enlarges the total penalty for that class appreciably. The entry into doubtful also has an effect, but being old, the ageing factor has discounted most of it. On the external side, the heavy debt burden and insufficient cash coverage both land in the lower steps and offer no compensation.

Company B result
Credit ceiling multiple0.5× base
Collateral coverage60 to 100 percent
Approval pathCredit committee
Score541of 1000
C

No knock-out rule fired: the entry into doubtful was not in the recent window and the returned cheque has been remedied. The grade therefore comes straight from the score. Review is monthly and every new instrument goes through the committee.

READING THE RESULT

What pulled the score down, and what could not rescue it

Two sensitivity analyses on Company B's file, each changing one input and holding the rest constant. These two comparisons show the logic of the model better than any explanation.

If its official rating had been good

Replacing Company B's Iranian Credit Scoring rating with Company A's good one and holding everything else constant moves the file up by one grade and leaves it still in the lower half of the table. The ceiling on what this pillar can do is bounded by its twenty percent weight, and in practice only part of that shifts. A good external rating does not buy off a bad behavioural pattern.

If the same delay had come in one piece

Had Company B's total days of delay occurred as a single long event rather than three separate ones — that is, roughly the same number of days late — the file would have landed two grades higher. The whole of that difference comes from the recurrence factor, and it is larger than the effect of changing the official rating in the scenario beside it. For this model, three short slips are worse than one long one.

This is a design choice, not a mathematical result. The model deliberately penalises frequency more than severity, because its founding assumption is that recurrence predicts future default better. That assumption is not a claim; it is measured by back-testing against real default history and its coefficient is calibrated on that basis. If the data shows otherwise, the coefficient changes and a new version of the weights is recorded with its date and reason — without rewriting any score already issued.
DATA SUFFICIENCY

When history is thin, the model does not pretend to know

The first pillar only means something when enough settled instruments stand behind it. For a newly onboarded company, rather than producing an unsupported number, the model redistributes the weights and flags the score.

ConditionModel behaviourFlag on the score
Very little history on the platformThe weight of pillar one is reduced appreciably and redistributed across the external pillarsInsufficient history
Limited historyThe weight of pillar one is reduced to a degreeLimited history
Sufficient historyStandard weights apply—
No official credit rating availableA neutral value is substitutedIncomplete data

The flag is not merely a label; it appears on the enquiry report and in the file as well, so the decision-maker knows how much evidence the number rests on. A score of 700 with full history and a score of 700 flagged "insufficient history" are two different things and should not be read alike.

Recalculation is event-driven

The score does not wait for a period to close. Instrument maturity, settlement (full or partial), a change in the accounting class of a receivable, a fresh bureau enquiry, the recording of a returned cheque or block, and the release of a new version of the weights — each triggers a full recalculation. The previous version is not deleted; it remains beside the new one with its time and cause, so that any historical score can be reproduced under the weights of its own day. That is the precondition for answering the question "why was this number issued on that date".